In yesterday's blog I showed how I made a small profit with an easy trade on a football match. However, while that was an 'interest bet' to pass the time between races I have a much stronger opinion on the outcome of the x-factor and as you can see from my bet I have a much more heavier involvement !
I am convinced Alex will not win the ITV's talent contest and I have laid her continually in the last few weeks. Sometimes you have to go against the crowd in this game and that is what I am doing. At around 2.28 at the time of writing I think she remains an excellent lay !!
My reasoning is that she faces two strong rivals in Eoghan (huge patriotic fans from Ireland) and Diana (has sung the winning song "Hallelujah" already), plus it can't be denied that black people generally don't do as well as white people when it comes down to votes from the british public in these type of events. Furthermore, although this is a 'talent show' in reality it is a 'popularity contest'. I mean, if John Sergeant had stayed in Strictly Come Dancing and it had been decided on a public vote he would have won hands down... and he definitely wasn't the best dancer was he ?!
When you bet on horseracing there is always the chance that someone know more about the horse you are backing than you (ie the stable staff ,owners etc) so there is an element of risk. However, with the x-factor all the information is in the public domain and having followed the programme every week I'm confident of success. I'd advise you all to follow me in and lay Alex on Betfair, not as a potential trade but as a pure outright lay.
Fingers crossed and c'mon Eoghan and Diana !!
1 comment:
Dont think that theory about black people is true...though it used to be. But since Leona and Jordin Sparks, the black factor must be minimal at best.
Diana couldnt win as shes an annoying trollop, groups dont win, so its whether owen has enough. Alex Nailed on for me.
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